Hopes for the next government
The Liberals didn’t inspire the country. They spooked just enough voters to survive. - Darrell Bricker; author, pollster, political scientist and commentator
Election 2025 has come and gone. And to put it mildly I’m disappointed at the result. The Liberal Party of Canada was able to reivent itself in a matter of weeks from the party which led Canada into a period of economic decline and a cost of living crisis into the right team to protect the country from Donald Trump and fix our stagnant economy.
When we eventually sell our 2014 vehicle I’ll have to change the floor mats, add a steering wheel cover and advertise it as “new and improved”. Don’t mind the rust. It appears a lot of people would buy it.
This has clearly been the election of vibes and fear. Fear of Trump effectively memory-holed a decade of poor decisions by the Liberal government. And Mark Carney was immediately accepted (even before he was elected as Liberal Party leader) as the person best able to navigate the turbulent waters we find ourselves in.
A: 25 Nov 25 – Trump first announces 25% tariffs on Canada on Truth Social
B: 6 Jan 25 – Trudeau announces his resignation
C: 16 Jan 25 – Carney announces his intention to run for the LPC leadership
D: 20 Jan 25 – Trump’s inauguration
E: 9 Mar 25 – Carney wins party leadership
F: 23 Mar 25 – Dissolution of Parliament
G: 28 Apr 25 – Election Day
Coming into this election Canada was faced with multiple problems (summarized in The most important election ever?) which have been growing worse for years. I am very concerned that Carney’s Liberals will continue along the path of Justin Trudeau. I think I’m right about that. But I hope I’m wrong.
However the people have spoken, and the result is another Liberal minority. In the spirit of hope, as we watch this “new” government take shape, here are three things I hope Mark Carney does. I previously identified six Priorities for the next federal government. This isn’t meant to replicate those ideas. Although there is some overlap.
Rather here are three themes or guiding principles I hope Mark Carney embraces.
Focus on the younger generations
Our politicians have a long track record of focusing on the desires of older generations and specifically the Baby Boomers. Politically this makes sense; a large cohort which can be relied upon to vote at high rates is obviously a group you want to court. In this election all major national parties (and the Greens) proposed policies and programs advantaging seniors although this cohort has the lowest poverty rate and highest wealth accumulation of any age group in Canada.
The Liberals however were the beneficiaries of support from “The Olds”. Going forward the Liberals need to overcome the muscle memory of focusing on issues of concern to older voters and instead preference younger generations.
Like many, I’ve enumerated the weaknesses in Canada’s economy. Seniors and Gen-Xers (my generation) are less impacted by low GDP per capita, poor productivity or out of reach housing costs. The effects have been disproportionally felt by the young:
The unemployment rate among those 15 to 24 years of age is 13.7% (March 2025).
72% of Canadians have given up ever owning a home.
Young people and particularly young men are the primary fatal casualties of drug addiction.
Nearly half of women have fewer children than they desire, with desire reported as 2.2 children whereas intention is 1.85 children. In reality however Canada’s fertility rate is currently 1.4 (well below the 2.1 replacement rate).
43% of Canadians aged 18-34 would support merger with the USA if guaranteed citizenship and conversion of assets.
In 2022 emigration by Canadians to the USA surged to a ten year high.
On a related note, 20% of immigrants to Canada leave the country within 25 years.
Canada has become a poor place to start a life.
As well Canada like many countries is facing a youth mental health crisis. While the impacts are different between genders, and girls/women report significantly worse levels of mental health than boys/men, this is impacting those 15-30 years of age to a significant degree.
Lastly the Liberals need to take the challenges faced by boys and men seriously. I don’t hold out much hope for this as it runs contrary to the progressive mentality which has soaked into the Liberals in the last 12 years. If these issues are to be addressed then Carney needs to champion the cause of young men.
In short Carney needs to substitute the Liberals’ feminist agenda for a youth agenda. Policies regarding economic development, housing, education, addiction and mental health need to be examined through this lens. Not only is this the right thing to do, but if we want a healthy country able to provide for its citizens in the future we can’t lose the young to despair or emigration.
Let the West in
This is now the fourth election in a row in which the west has voted for the Conservative Party and has seen the Liberals form government. This plus the anti-energy and anti-development policies pursued by Trudeau’s Liberals have increased frustration among westerners who have long seen Ottawa as government from ‘there’.
Western alienation has been discussed before but has never received the degree of serious attention of Quebec separatism. This was publicly raised by Preston Manning during the election. Unfortunately, a common response was to criticize him for speaking out (shooting the messenger) or dismiss it as a fringe issue. If someone sees a threat to national unity - which Manning clearly does - it is right to raise the issue. It is only through engaging with such concerns that they can be addressed.
My primary issue with Manning’s piece was that he didn’t offer any practical suggestions for the Rest of Canada. It came across as “So don’t vote Liberal or bad things could happen”. He may be right. But everyone gets to vote the way they wish. Appearing to tell people how to vote wasn’t useful. The question today is: as the Liberals have again formed government, how do we address western alienation? A western conference focused on peacefully seceding from Canada isn’t a good solution.
The solution to western alienation is for Carney to walk the walk of being a Prime Minister for all regions, not just talk about it. Being born in the NWT and having lived in Edmonton decades ago isn’t enough. He needs to decide where he stands on energy development and stand up to the radical environmentalists in the Liberal Caucus and the party more broadly. And he needs to actively engage with the concerns of westerners including dealing with people who he probably doesn’t like very much such as Danielle Smith and Scott Moe.
Stop the fear and division
Most parties have probably been accused of stoking fear at some point. Sometimes those accusations are valid, sometimes such attacks are partisan, and sometimes there is a grey area between promoting an issue you champion and fear mongering.
However the Liberals have embraced stoking fear as an electoral strategy for years. When Stephen Harper led the newly reconstituted Conservative Party into the election in 2004 he was accused of having a “secret socially conservative agenda”. This attack continued until he won a majority in 2011 and in fact didn’t unleash a domestic policy inspired by The Handmaid’s Tale.
However once Harper retired, claims of Conservative plans to restrict (or worse) abortion access again became a staple of Liberal and progressive attacks. And predictably these claims were given a lot of air time and little critical assessment by left wing media outlets. More worryingly Trudeau exhibited a reflex to condemn anyone he disagreed with such as the Freedom Convoy and parents concerned about gender ideology in schools as not just being wrong (in his opinion) but as being fundamentally bad people.
Carney hasn’t distinguished himself as different from Trudeau thus far. Donald Trump was despised by the left during his first term and, given his antics since being re-elected, has become anathema to the majority of Canadians. Comparing someone to Trump these days is comparable in the minds of many to comparing that person to Hitler (who many progressives have compared Trump to). Carney using his victory speech at the Liberal Party Convention to claim that Pierre Poilievre “worships at the altar of Donald Trump” is not some passing criticism of his political ideology. It is as negative a statement as it is possible to make in Canada today.
Carney successfully leveraged fear of Donald Trump and the USA during the election. And throughout the campaign he continued to stoke division with claims that Poilievre’s policies are taken from “Trump’s playbook”.
Since the election Carney has been quoted as saying that he plans to be a Prime Minister for call Canadians. This sounds positive. But then, so did “Sunny Ways”. Hopefully Carney means it.
Final Thoughts.
For the last several years political shows regularly raised the specter of an election. Minority parliaments, we were told, only survive for about two years. “Anything can happen. Tune in tomorrow!”
What was ignored in this ratings-boosting narrative was the fact that Justin Trudeau had a strong minority which could only be defeated by all three opposition parties together. As the interests of all three parties were different, the chances of this happening were slim, particularly if managed well. The New Democratic Party was broke with stagnant support in the polls and the Bloc Québécois didn’t see much advantage in forcing an election. Even without the Supply & Confidence agreement the Liberals could have retained support in the face of the Conservatives. All it would have taken was to be mindful of the desires of two parties: throw some money at a support program or make sure Quebec gets a concession and pretty much any legislation could get through.
While the composition of Parliament looks different today, we aren’t substantially in a different situation than we have been since 2019. The NDP is broke and now leaderless with about half their traditional supporters aligned for now with the Liberals. I haven’t heard any comment about their finances or Yves-François Blanchet’s prospects, but the BQ needs Trump to be less scary before their supporters can be expected to return. We have taken a different path to the same place.
So I suspect we have about three years before anyone gets serious about another election as no one will be in a rush to return to the polls. I have little doubt the NDP and the BQ will be willing to prop up the Liberals on any pretext. I do hope the Conservatives can oppose bad ideas while being part of the solution and not appear to oppose just for the sake of opposition. Canadians won’t tolerate it. This includes supporting good or at least acceptable policies.
Thus far Carney seems to be saying the right things. But every politician speaks positively and promises to be a uniter in their acceptance speech. And I do applaud him for not playing politics with Poilievre over his hunt for a seat in Parliament. But only time will tell if the Liberals can truly change their stripes and start focusing on what is best for Canada and its citizens.
I do hope they can. There are a lot of people counting on it.
Thank you for taking the time to consider my thoughts on the subject. I hope you found them useful.